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Molybdenum Outlook 2018: Prices to Continue Slow Recovery

作者: 发布时间:2017-12-26 浏览次数:149
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Molybdenum Outlook 2018: Prices to Continue Slow Recovery

The global molybdenum market is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 3 percent from 2017 to 2021. Learn more here about the molybdenum outlook.

Melissa Shaw • December 18, 2017

The molybdenum market continued its slow recovery in 2017, and the outlook for 2018 is for more of the same.

The Technavio report identifies China Molybdenum (SHA:603993),Centerra Gold (TSX:CG), Codelco, Freeport-McMoRan and Grupo Mexico as the leading players in the global molybdenum market.



Molybdenum outlook 2018: Demand

According to the International Molybdenum Association, 80 percent of the molybdenum that is mined each year is used to make stainless steel, cast iron and superalloys.

In November, General Moly (TSX:GMO,NYSEAMERICAN:GMO) CEO Bruce D. Hansen said that “steel demand in China and worldwide has rebounded strongly in 2017 underpinning molybdenum demand.” Meanwhile, the International Stainless Steel Forum notes that stainless steel production increased by 5 percent year-on-year, to 23.2 million MT, during the first half of 2017.

Molybdenum is also used in structural steels for offshore oil rigs, as well as in oil and gas pipelines, because of its corrosion resistance, strength and durability. “Much of the demand growth for molybdenum products has been from increased purchases from the oil and gas industry, particularly in North America,” Roskill observes.

Hansen said, “in the United States and around the world, oil and gas drilling activity requiring moly-reinforced steel has bounced back to over 2,000 operating rigs, a level last seen two years ago. While the fourth quarter typically reflects lower molybdenum demand from steel producers during the winter, we believe we will continue to see higher quarterly highs and lows in the molybdenum prices in 2019.”

The global molybdenum market is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 3 percent from 2017 to 2021, as per a recent market research report by Technavio. “The growth in the steel market is attributed to the increase in demand for concrete in infrastructure, transportation, and other end-user industries around the world,” said Mohd Shakeel Iqbal, Technavio’s lead analyst for metals and minerals research.

However, CPM Group predicts slower molybdenum demand growth between 2016 and 2025 compared to compound annual demand growth from the years 2009 to 2015. The firm said molybdenum prices are expected to see support from the “trend to shift towards higher molybdenum-content steels” in developing economies, particularly across Asia.

The firm also expects slower growth in molybdenum by-product production from copper mines because most mine ramp ups and expansions have already been phased into the supply curve. Supply tightness is expected to increase prices over the initial forecast years.


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